"The collapse of Northvolt has been a body blow, no doubt. A proper kick in the teeth for European aspirations."
So, the latest pronouncement in the Financial Times from some top executives in Europe’s metals and battery materials sector is that we should wave the white flag on building our own battery industry.
That we're so far behind a Chinese curve – where firms like CATL and BYD already command almost 56% of the global EV battery market – that we should just roll over and beg for partnerships.
What a load of defeatist nonsense.
This isn't being "realistic"; it's a recipe for turning Europe into a glorified branch office for Asian tech giants, and it’s a dangerous path to tread.
Let’s be clear: the collapse of Northvolt has been a body blow, no doubt. A proper kick in the teeth for European aspirations, although there is still hope a buyer can be found for both the R&D business and the factory in Skellefteå.
But to use that as the final nail in the coffin for an autonomous European battery industry? That’s like saying a football team should forfeit the league because they lost their star striker to injury after 10 minutes of the first game of the season. You don't just give up. You regroup, you learn, you find another way.
The argument that China is two decades ahead, and we can't possibly catch up is precisely the kind of thinking that guarantees we won't.
Yes, they've invested massively, and yes, they have a lead, with six Chinese companies now in the global top ten battery suppliers, accounting for a whopping 67.5% of the market.
But Europe isn't starting from zero. We have world-class research institutions, a deep well of engineering talent – the EU-wide battery industry employs up to 60,000 people, with projections indicating a rise to approximately 200,000 by 2030 – and an industrial backbone that, when properly motivated and funded, can achieve wonders.
Significant EU-level funding, like the €2.9 billion "European Battery Innovation" project, shows commitment. To suggest we should just "embrace China" and hope they play nice with their technology is naive at best, and strategically idiotic at worst.
These so-called "partnerships" often look a lot like Europe providing the land and the market, while the real value – the intellectual property, the cutting-edge R&D, the high-skilled jobs – stays firmly in external hands.
Julia Poliscanova from Transport & Environment in the Financial Times article, hit the nail on the head: they bring their own people for key roles, and Europe risks becoming little more than an assembly plant.
Local production and sourcing requirements are a sticking plaster on a gaping wound if the core technology and control remain elsewhere, especially when considering that Chinese battery imports to the EU surged from €2.73 billion in 2021 to €21.77 billion in 2023.
"The argument that China is two decades ahead, and we can't possibly catch up is precisely the kind of thinking that guarantees we won't."
The idea that Europe's battery problem just boils down to churning out cells is obviously an oversimplification.
We're staring down another gaping vulnerability here: our absolute reliance on outsiders for the critical raw materials - stuff like lithium, nickel, cobalt, and graphite - and, even worse, for processing them. To be clear, we need to get serious.
That means massive investment in our own backyard: domestic mining, refining, and, perhaps most critically, battery recycling.
And let's not forget we're sitting on significant potential right here in northern Sweden, with discoveries like LKAB's massive rare earth metals find in Kiruna proving we have some resources ourselves.
This isn't just some green pipe dream; it's about building a circular economy, cutting those infuriating geopolitical supply risks, and finally seizing some strategic autonomy.
We're talking about taking charge of the entire lifecycle, from the moment we dig it up to putting it back into a new battery.
Not just bolting bits together at the end. This isn't abstract theory; it's the bedrock of real independence.
It confronts that "gaping vulnerability" head-on. It's the long-term, proactive strategy for true self-sufficiency and genuine environmental sustainability. It's the pathway to telling the defeatists to pack their bags.
This isn't a partial fix; it's the full solution.
Instead of the cap-in-hand approach detailed in the FT piece, Europe needs to get serious. That means massive, sustained public and private investment in our own battery technology, from raw material processing right through to next-generation cell design and, crucially, recycling what we use. The European EV market itself is projected to reach around €338 billion by 2030, which presents a colossal opportunity.
Building a robust domestic battery industry could create tens of thousands of direct jobs – more than 58,000 new jobs could be generated, including over 47,000 of them in battery cell production.
We need policies that don't just invite foreign investment but actively cultivate home-grown champions and ensure that when joint ventures happen, there are genuine skills and IP transfer – not just token gestures.
The EU needs to establish clear, binding requirements for technology and IP transfer, as well as comprehensive skills development programmes. This ensures that foreign investment contributes to building Europe's indigenous technological capabilities and high-skilled job base.
The idea of forgoing tariffs and simply "incentivising co-operation" sounds lovely and collaborative, but it ignores the hard-nosed reality of global industrial strategy.
China didn't get where it is by accident; it was through deliberate, state-backed industrial policy.
Europe needs to start playing the same game, for its own long-term economic security and technological sovereignty. This isn't about decoupling for the sake of it; it's about building a resilient, competitive, and genuinely European EV industry.
Anything less is just managing our own decline.